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Warnings of a possible strong El Niño weather pattern starting this summer have fueled concerns that droughts and floods could decimate crops and send food prices higher. But Credit Suisse says there’s no reason to worry. In a recent report, analyst Michael Wan found no strong correlation between El Niño patterns and food inflation over the past two decades. Food prices barely budged during the 1998 El Niño, the strongest in recent history. And while costs jumped during two of the four most recent seasons, those increases were likely linked to other factors. During the 2007 El Niño, for example, the Indian and Vietnamese governments banned rice exports, causing shortages. And in 2010, higher oil prices were likely the culprit for food inflation. This time, there may be negative effects in certain regions such as India, which could see a smaller rice harvest. But unlike in 2007, global stockpiles are currently at healthy levels, and should help keep prices anchored.
First published in The Financialist in 2014.
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What’s the hottest exhibition being staged in Russia’s capital at the moment, you ask? The answer: Indian bling. More than 300 pieces of extravagant handmade jewelry, including royal, ceremonial and personal jewels that were worn by India’s maharajas, are on display at the Moscow Kremlin Museums. And it’s a literal show of the ages: While the show includes contemporary works by Indian jewelers Munnu Kasliwal and Bhagat, the real highlights are, shall we say, of earlier vintages. Highlights include pieces dating back to the early days of the Mughal Empire in the 16th century; a 400-year-old pendant decorated with gold, nephrite, rubies and emeralds; and a 19th century turban crown encrusted with gold, silver, diamonds, emeralds, rubies and pearls as well. More than 30 museums, institutions and private collectors around the world have lent the items, many of which have never been exhibited before. If that’s not enough for you, European jewelry houses Cartier, Chaumet and Van Cleef & Arpels have contributed their own Indian-inspired pieces. The show, titled “Jewels that Enchanted the World,” runs until July 27.
Competition among airlines for premium customers has reached dizzying heights in recent years. From Michelin-starred chefs and chauffeur services to in-flight showers and cocktail bars, airlines are doing – and spending – whatever it takes to attract travelers for whom price is no obstacle.
Etihad Airways is raising the stakes significantly with what it claims to be the first three-room suite onboard a commercial aircraft. The 125-square-foot cabin, dubbed “The Residence”, will reportedly cost a staggering $43,000 for two passengers – or about $6,000 per hour of the flight between Abu Dhabi and London. For that outlay, travelers get a living room, a double bed, a shower, a personal butler and a concierge team to deal with travel nuisances such as arranging ground transport on arrival. The suite will be in the Abu Dhabi airline’s new A380 superjumbos, which start flying between Abu Dhabi and London in December. First published in 2014 in The Financialist. Whoever said, “It’s summertime, and the living is easy,” probably didn’t own a car. Gas prices tend to surge during the hot months, and this year seems unlikely to prove an exception, according to a recent Credit Suisse report. Inventories are expected to be lower-than-normal as some OPEC members have been plagued by falling production.
The cartel, which accounts for about one third of the world’s oil output, will need to boost output significantly in the second half of the year in order to meet growing world demand, according to the International Energy Agency. Add to that the political X-factor of potential instability in oil producers Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria, and benchmark Brent oil futures have the potential to move $10 a barrel higher than Credit Suisse’s base-case forecast of $110 a barrel this summer. “Not much has to go wrong for oil to enter an upward spiral,” analysts Jan Stuart and Johannes Van Der Tuin say in the report. One source of potential relief for summertime drivers: the U.S. could release emergency supplies from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the first time since 2011. First published in The Financialist in 2014. Not everyone can be a Hollywood star partying at the Cannes Film Festival. But those willing to fork out 275,350 pounds, or about $462,000, can get pretty close.
A luxury package offered by Oliver’s Travels during the May 14-24 festival lets travelers play celebrities for four days at a two-bedroom villa in the French Riviera, complete with a personal stylist, hairdresser, jeweler and security team. The latter isn’t just for show either, as the faux celebrities will have up to 1 million pounds worth of diamonds at their disposal – on loan, of course. Other perks include a helicopter ride over the Cote d’Azur and airport transfers in one of 43 sports cars. If that doesn’t bring out your inner celebrity, nothing will. First published in The Financialist in 2014. After a rough start to the year, emerging market currencies bounced back in April amid renewed investor appetite for risk. But if history is any guide, that trend may not survive May. Every year since 2010, bad news in Europe and the U.S. has made the fifth month of the year a gloomy one for developing world currencies, Credit Suisse says in a recent report entitled “Sell in May and Go Away.” In 2010, there was the Greek bailout, while 2011 saw a similar scenario in Portugal. In 2012, political instability worsened in Greece as elections failed to produce a coalition while Spanish bank Bankia asked for a government bailout. And last May, of course, the Fed announced plans to begin tapering, which triggered massive capital outflows. This year, the catalyst could very well be U.S. rates topping their highs for the year as growth strengthens and inflation inches higher. Geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and a weaker Chinese economy won’t help either.
First published in The Financialist in 2014. Investors have been worrying about the health of emerging market economies ever since the U.S. Fed announcement of plans to reduce asset purchases sparked massive capital outflows last year. But has it all been for naught? Greater-than-expected oil consumption in bellwether countries suggests that EM economies are growing just fine. Overall demand for oil in emerging markets grew 2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2014, compared with 1.6 percent and 1.7 percent in the third and fourth quarters of 2013, respectively, according to Credit Suisse. Demand increased an impressive 7 percent year-over-year in Saudi Arabia, 6 percent in Indonesia, and even 3 percent in the EM economic laggard of late, India. Such data, says Credit Suisse, should help solidify sentiment that there’s “no sign of a collective ‘falling-off-the-cliff’ type event that so many investors have fretted about.”
First published in The Financialist in 2014. Call it economic cognitive dissonance: Last week, on the same day that the U.S. reported economic growth of just 0.1 percent in the first quarter, a statement issued by the Federal Reserve began by saying that “growth in economic activity has picked up recently.” Policymakers acknowledged that while the cold winter had slowed growth, both the labor market and household spending had shown signs of improvement. One particular bright spot was a 10 percent increase in consumer health care spending driven by enrollment in the Affordable Care Act. The gain, measured on a quarterly annualized basis, was by far the largest in 34 years, according to Credit Suisse. That upsurge is likely to continue, too: the number of people enrolled has grown from 4.2 million at the beginning of March to over 8 million today, and officials say enrollees who signed up after February 15 will be counted in second quarter spending.
First published in The Financialist in 2014. The outbreak of Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus at pig farms across the U.S. has been worse than expected. PEDv, which was first diagnosed a year ago and has since killed millions of pigs in more than two dozen states, reduced the U.S. pig crop by 6 percent in the first quarter and will likely result in total 2014 production falling by an estimated 4 to 5 percent, according to Credit Suisse.
How has that scarcity played out in industry? For starters, pork customers stocked up on inventory when the virus emerged. That drove up prices for processed meats and even temporarily boosted margins for pork packers such as Tyson and Hormel. But none of the large packaged food companies rely too heavily on pork for the run-up to have a dramatic effect on profits—at Kraft, for example, refrigerated meats only represent 10 percent of company profits. While the impact has been disastrous for some farms, the virus usually only impacts one litter per sow as pigs tend to develop immunity in only three weeks. As a result, most sow barns have returned to normal productivity once the virus has run its course. First published in 2014 in The Financialist. Rising labor costs and a 6.6 percent year-over-year drop in exports in the first quarter has investors concerned that China might have lost the competitive edge it has used for years to fuel rapid growth. Not to worry: while the country’s share of global exports may not increase, it certainly won’t shrink, according to a recent Credit Suisse report. Once shipments to Hong Kong are excluded, Chinese exports actually grew 6.7 percent in the first quarter. The disparity stems from a recent government crackdown on companies that were fiddling their export numbers to the territory. China has also gained market share over the last few years in the electronics assembly export sector while holding its own in manufacturing, especially in goods such as clothing, shoes and furniture. And although wages are rising, they’re still low relative to the developed world, and Chinese manufacturing is increasingly moving from coastal centers to lower-cost inland areas.
First published in 2014 in The Financialist. |
JENS ERIK GOULDJens Erik Gould is a political, business and entertainment writer and editor who has reported from a dozen countries for media outlets including The New York Times, National Public Radio and Bloomberg News. Archives
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